Prediction market edge,
built for retail traders who think in probabilities.
Live market data from Polymarket and Kalshi, ground-truth probability models, smart money signals, trend analysis, and sentiment-driven news — unified in one dashboard. Founding member pricing: $0.99/mo while we're in alpha.
Updated every 4 hours from live Polymarket & Kalshi data.
Subscribe to see Kelly sizing, model signals, arb scanner, smart money alerts, and the full ranked list.
Get Started — $0.99/moAll features included with the $0.99/mo founding member plan.
Unified Market View
Polymarket and Kalshi markets tracked together — hundreds of active contracts ranked by composite opportunity score. Urgency tiers (Live, Soon, Upcoming) surface time-sensitive markets first, with a pulsing indicator when a market resolves within hours.
Historical Price Trends
Every market accumulates hourly price history. Trend direction, magnitude, and consistency are computed automatically — so you can see whether a market has been moving steadily or whipsawing before entering a position.
Smart Money Signal
We cross-reference Polymarket's top-50 weekly traders by PnL against each market's holder list. When a meaningful fraction of top holders are leaderboard traders, the market surfaces a Smart Money indicator — signalling where sophisticated capital is positioned.
New Market Alerts
Subscribe to alerts by keyword, category, or platform. When new markets matching your criteria open, you receive an email notification — giving you first-mover advantage before the market has priced in consensus. Markets first seen within 24 hours are marked NEW.
Ground-Truth Probability Models
Four domain models run independently against each market: Time-for-Change (elections), Fed Futures implied probability (macro), bookmaker consensus devigged (sports), and on-chain metrics (crypto). When a model disagrees with the market price, that divergence is your edge signal.
Arbitrage Scanner + Kelly Sizing
Cross-platform spread detection shows gross spread, net spread after fees, annualised return, and resolution risk — pre-calculated. Set your bankroll once and every market shows the exact dollar amount to trade on each leg using a conservative quarter-Kelly recommendation.
Sentiment Attribution per Market
Each market surfaces a net sentiment signal derived from matched news: weighted bullish/bearish score, a fair value estimate adjusted for news pressure, an edge signal in percentage points, and a breaking news flag when velocity spiked in the last hour.
Sentiment-Driven News Feed
News articles are fetched from NewsAPI and supplemental RSS sources, matched to relevant markets, deduplicated by title similarity, and re-ranked by BM25 relevance score so the most on-topic articles surface first.
Calibration and Forecasting
Track your own prediction accuracy over time with Brier scoring and a personal calibration curve. The platform also shows historical accuracy by price bucket so you can benchmark the market's own reliability. Opt into the forecasting leaderboard to compare against other traders.
This is where we're going. Founding members shape what comes next.
- Unified Polymarket + Kalshi opportunity feed
- Composite scoring with urgency tiers
- Smart money signal — top-50 trader positioning
- Arbitrage scanner + Kelly position sizing
- Ground-truth models (elections, macro, sports, crypto)
- Sentiment-attributed news feed, BM25 ranked
- New market alerts by keyword and category
- Personal calibration + Brier scoring + leaderboard
- Watchlist, position tracking, weekly digest email
- Feature request pipeline with automated implementation
- Price history sparkline charts on market cards
- Adaptive refresh rates based on market urgency
- Mobile-optimised dashboard layout
- LLM sentiment via Anthropic Batches API — faster scoring, lower latency
- Pipeline health dashboard — last run status and step breakdown
- Watchlist price-move alerts
- Email notification on market resolution
- Real-time WebSocket price feed for live markets
- Dashboard response caching — faster load times at scale
- Prefect workflow orchestration for reliable pipeline scheduling
- Kalshi candlestick historical data integration
- Polymarket open interest tracking over time
- Market holder concentration analysis
- Backtested model accuracy statistics
- Polling data integration for election models
- Crypto on-chain metrics — Glassnode integration
- Shared watchlists and community signals
- API access for power users
Alpha pricing will not increase while your subscription is active.
- Full ranked opportunity dashboard
- Model Signals — edge vs market price
- Kelly position sizing in dollars
- Arbitrage scanner
- Smart money signal
- Market alerts by keyword and category
- Watchlist and position tracking
- Feature Requests — shape the roadmap
- Every new premium feature as it ships
Is this stable enough to use for real trades?
The core dashboard data — prices, volumes, spreads — comes directly from Polymarket and Kalshi APIs and is as reliable as the underlying platforms. The probability models and model signals are alpha-quality: they're built on sound methodology (Kelly criterion, Time-for-Change, Black-Scholes) but you should treat them as a second opinion, not a single source of truth. Size positions appropriately and don't risk more than you can afford to lose.
What does "ground-truth probability model" mean?
Each market category has a domain-specific model that estimates what the real probability should be, independent of the market price. For elections, that's the Abramowitz Time-for-Change formula (GDP growth + presidential approval + incumbency). For macro, it's Fed Funds futures implied probability. For sports, it's bookmaker consensus with vig removed. For crypto, it's on-chain metrics. When the model disagrees with the market price, that divergence is a potential edge signal.
What is the smart money signal?
We fetch Polymarket's public leaderboard of top-50 traders ranked by weekly profit and loss. We then cross-reference who is holding positions in each market using Polymarket's public holder data. When a meaningful fraction of the top holders in a market are also top-ranked traders, that market surfaces a "Smart Money" indicator. It's a directional signal — not a guarantee — but it tells you where the sharpest capital is positioned.
How do market alerts work?
Subscribe to alerts by keyword (e.g. "Fed", "Super Bowl"), category (elections, macro, sports, crypto), or platform. When new markets matching your criteria first appear in our data feed, you receive an email notification. Markets are also tagged "NEW" on the dashboard for 24 hours after first detection.
How does Kelly position sizing work?
The Kelly criterion calculates the optimal fraction of your bankroll to risk given your estimated edge and the market's implied odds. We display a conservative quarter-Kelly recommendation capped at 25% of bankroll to account for model uncertainty. Set your bankroll once in Settings, and every market row shows the exact dollar amount to trade on each leg.
How often does the data refresh?
The dashboard auto-refreshes every 60 seconds. The data pipeline runs every four hours in production, ingesting new market snapshots, computing urgency tiers, running sentiment analysis, updating model signals, and recording price history.
What does "alpha pricing locked in for life" mean?
If you subscribe at $0.99/mo during the alpha period, your rate will not increase as long as your subscription remains active. When we exit alpha and adjust pricing, founding members keep their original rate. This is our commitment to early supporters — not a marketing claim.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. You can cancel from the Billing page at any time. You'll retain access until the end of your billing period. No questions, no retention flows.
How do I submit feature requests?
Members can access the Feature Requests section, where you can submit requests and track their progress through our automated build pipeline. Requests go through triage, spec writing, implementation, and QA — with updates visible at each stage.